📊 **Complete guide to reading the Seasonality dashboard | Using only this image
📊 **Complete guide to reading the Seasonality dashboard | Using only this image
Dear friends, since channel members do not have access to the indicator itself, in this tutorial series we will learn how to perform a complete analysis of the market situation using only this image.
This dashboard is one of the most complete tools for analyzing the market's historical behavior; it examines price performance across quarters, months, days of the week, weeks of the year and many specialized statistics to increase the probability of successful trades.
⚠️ **Very important note:
Seasonality does not predict the future; rather, it examines the market's past behavior so that we can make our trades at times that statistically have a higher probability of success.
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🟢 1- Quarterly table (Quarterly)
The quarterly table is located on the left side of the image.
Each row represents a year and each column shows one of the four quarters of the year (Q1 to Q4).
The colors are very important:
🟢 Green = positive return
🔴 Red = negative return
At the bottom of the table there is also very valuable information:
✅ Average return of each quarter
✅ Success rate (Win Rate)
✅ Average maximum profit (MFE)
✅ Average maximum loss (MAE)
✅ Maximum capital drawdown (Max Drawdown)
✅ Profit Factor
✅ Expectancy
✅ Sharpe Ratio
✅ Number of samples
✅ Quarter strength score (Score)
✅ Seasonal strength index (SSI)
✅ Data confidence level (Confidence)
If you see that a quarter has been green in most years and has a high Win Rate, that quarter statistically offers favorable conditions for trading.
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🟢 2- Monthly table (Monthly)
The monthly table can be seen at the bottom of the image.
Each column represents one of the months of the year.
By looking at this table you can find out:
📈 Which months have usually had the most growth.
📉 Which months have experienced the biggest corrections.
📊 Which months are more volatile.
At the bottom of this table, the same specialized statistics as in the quarterly table are repeated so that the quality of each month can be examined better.
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🟢 3- Summary dashboard (Summary Dashboard)
The most important part of the dashboard is in the center of the image.
This section displays a summary of all the information.
Including:
✅ Best year
✅ Worst year
✅ Average annual return
✅ Average median return
✅ Sharpe Ratio
✅ Best quarter
✅ Worst quarter
✅ Best month
✅ Worst month
✅ Best holding period
✅ Best day of the week
✅ Comparison of the performance of the last 5, 10 and 20 years with the entire history
If you do not have enough time to review all the tables, read this section first.
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🟢 4- Weeks-of-the-year table (Week of Year)
The weeks-of-the-year table is located on the right side of the image.
In this section, the performance of each week of the year is examined separately.
For example, it may be that:
Week 44 is positive in most years.
Or week 28 usually has a negative return.
This table is very useful for Swing and Position traders.
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🟢 5- Days-of-the-week table (Weekday)
Below the weeks-of-the-year table is the performance of each day of the week.
For each day, this information is displayed:
📊 Average return
📊 Median return
📊 Success rate
📊 Best performance
📊 Worst performance
📊 Volatility (Standard Deviation)
If a day has both a positive average and a high Win Rate, it is statistically considered a suitable day for trading.
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🟢 6- Probability table (Probability)
This table is one of the most important parts of the dashboard.
In this section, the probability of various events occurring is calculated.
For each quarter and each month you will see:
✅ Number of samples
✅ Probability of a positive return
✅ Probability of growth above a specified amount
✅ Probability of a drop greater than a specified amount
The more green percentages there are, the higher the statistical quality of that time period.
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🟢 7- The most important statistical metrics
📌 Win Rate
The percentage of times that time period ended in profit.
📌 Profit Factor
If it is greater than 1, it means profits were greater than losses.
Above 2 is considered excellent.
📌 Sharpe Ratio
Measures the quality of return relative to risk.
Larger numbers indicate better performance.
📌 Max Drawdown
The largest capital drawdown that occurred in that period.
The lower it is, the lower the risk.
📌 Expectancy
The average expected profit per trade.
📌 Score
The overall quality score of that quarter or month, from 0 to 100.
📌 SSI
The seasonal strength index, which classifies the condition as:
🟢 Strong Bull
🟢 Bull
🟡 Neutral
🔴 Bear
🔴 Strong Bear
and displays it.
📌 Confidence
The number of data confidence stars.
The more stars there are, the higher the reliability of the analysis.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 How do we use this dashboard?
The best way to use it is as follows:
1️⃣ First, determine the overall market trend.
2️⃣ Then check which quarter or month we are in.
3️⃣ Look at the Win Rate and Score of that same period.
4️⃣ Check the Probability.
5️⃣ If all the statistics point in one direction, the probability of a successful trade will be higher.
6️⃣ Finally, add technical analysis, support and resistance, and money management to it as well.
⚠️ Don't forget: Seasonality is a tool for increasing probability, not a definitive prediction of the future. Never enter a trade based solely on this dashboard, and always use it alongside other analytical tools.
#Seasonality #Bitcoin #Trading #Statistics #CoinKurd #PremiumAnalysis
Dear friends, since channel members do not have access to the indicator itself, in this tutorial series we will learn how to perform a complete analysis of the market situation using only this image.
This dashboard is one of the most complete tools for analyzing the market's historical behavior; it examines price performance across quarters, months, days of the week, weeks of the year and many specialized statistics to increase the probability of successful trades.
⚠️ **Very important note:
Seasonality does not predict the future; rather, it examines the market's past behavior so that we can make our trades at times that statistically have a higher probability of success.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 1- Quarterly table (Quarterly)
The quarterly table is located on the left side of the image.
Each row represents a year and each column shows one of the four quarters of the year (Q1 to Q4).
The colors are very important:
🟢 Green = positive return
🔴 Red = negative return
At the bottom of the table there is also very valuable information:
✅ Average return of each quarter
✅ Success rate (Win Rate)
✅ Average maximum profit (MFE)
✅ Average maximum loss (MAE)
✅ Maximum capital drawdown (Max Drawdown)
✅ Profit Factor
✅ Expectancy
✅ Sharpe Ratio
✅ Number of samples
✅ Quarter strength score (Score)
✅ Seasonal strength index (SSI)
✅ Data confidence level (Confidence)
If you see that a quarter has been green in most years and has a high Win Rate, that quarter statistically offers favorable conditions for trading.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 2- Monthly table (Monthly)
The monthly table can be seen at the bottom of the image.
Each column represents one of the months of the year.
By looking at this table you can find out:
📈 Which months have usually had the most growth.
📉 Which months have experienced the biggest corrections.
📊 Which months are more volatile.
At the bottom of this table, the same specialized statistics as in the quarterly table are repeated so that the quality of each month can be examined better.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 3- Summary dashboard (Summary Dashboard)
The most important part of the dashboard is in the center of the image.
This section displays a summary of all the information.
Including:
✅ Best year
✅ Worst year
✅ Average annual return
✅ Average median return
✅ Sharpe Ratio
✅ Best quarter
✅ Worst quarter
✅ Best month
✅ Worst month
✅ Best holding period
✅ Best day of the week
✅ Comparison of the performance of the last 5, 10 and 20 years with the entire history
If you do not have enough time to review all the tables, read this section first.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 4- Weeks-of-the-year table (Week of Year)
The weeks-of-the-year table is located on the right side of the image.
In this section, the performance of each week of the year is examined separately.
For example, it may be that:
Week 44 is positive in most years.
Or week 28 usually has a negative return.
This table is very useful for Swing and Position traders.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 5- Days-of-the-week table (Weekday)
Below the weeks-of-the-year table is the performance of each day of the week.
For each day, this information is displayed:
📊 Average return
📊 Median return
📊 Success rate
📊 Best performance
📊 Worst performance
📊 Volatility (Standard Deviation)
If a day has both a positive average and a high Win Rate, it is statistically considered a suitable day for trading.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 6- Probability table (Probability)
This table is one of the most important parts of the dashboard.
In this section, the probability of various events occurring is calculated.
For each quarter and each month you will see:
✅ Number of samples
✅ Probability of a positive return
✅ Probability of growth above a specified amount
✅ Probability of a drop greater than a specified amount
The more green percentages there are, the higher the statistical quality of that time period.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 7- The most important statistical metrics
📌 Win Rate
The percentage of times that time period ended in profit.
📌 Profit Factor
If it is greater than 1, it means profits were greater than losses.
Above 2 is considered excellent.
📌 Sharpe Ratio
Measures the quality of return relative to risk.
Larger numbers indicate better performance.
📌 Max Drawdown
The largest capital drawdown that occurred in that period.
The lower it is, the lower the risk.
📌 Expectancy
The average expected profit per trade.
📌 Score
The overall quality score of that quarter or month, from 0 to 100.
📌 SSI
The seasonal strength index, which classifies the condition as:
🟢 Strong Bull
🟢 Bull
🟡 Neutral
🔴 Bear
🔴 Strong Bear
and displays it.
📌 Confidence
The number of data confidence stars.
The more stars there are, the higher the reliability of the analysis.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 How do we use this dashboard?
The best way to use it is as follows:
1️⃣ First, determine the overall market trend.
2️⃣ Then check which quarter or month we are in.
3️⃣ Look at the Win Rate and Score of that same period.
4️⃣ Check the Probability.
5️⃣ If all the statistics point in one direction, the probability of a successful trade will be higher.
6️⃣ Finally, add technical analysis, support and resistance, and money management to it as well.
⚠️ Don't forget: Seasonality is a tool for increasing probability, not a definitive prediction of the future. Never enter a trade based solely on this dashboard, and always use it alongside other analytical tools.
#Seasonality #Bitcoin #Trading #Statistics #CoinKurd #PremiumAnalysis
Persian original · View this post on Telegram ↗ · Open in the archive · 💬 Discuss in the Coin_Kurd Telegram group · Educational, not financial advice.