🚀 The Kurdistani S2F BTC Cycle indicator | A new generation of Bitcoin cycle analysis
🚀 The Kurdistani S2F BTC Cycle indicator | A new generation of Bitcoin cycle analysis
Most indicators rely on only one or two analytical tools such as RSI, a moving average or even the Stock-to-Flow model; but the reality is that the Bitcoin market is influenced by many factors, including investor behavior, on-chain data, macroeconomic cycles and technical structure. For this reason, relying on a single model usually does not give a complete picture of the market's condition.
💡 Kurdistani S2F BTC Cycle was designed with exactly this approach; a multi-layered analytical framework that brings together a set of the most reliable valuation and market cycle models in order to identify Bitcoin's true position in the long-term market cycle.
⚙️ The most important parts of the indicator
🔹 Stock-to-Flow (S2F)
An advanced version of the PlanB model that uses actual supply, annual flow calculation, logarithmic deviation analysis and Z-Score to measure how far the price is from the intrinsic S2F value.
🔹 Realized Price & On-Chain
Simultaneous calculation of Realized Price, MVRV, MVRV Z-Score and NUPL to examine where the market stands compared with investors' average purchase price.
🔹 Pi Cycle
Always calculated on the daily timeframe, independent of the chart's timeframe, so that the model behaves consistently and reliably on all charts.
🔹 Delta Price
Calculated based on the new definition of Delta Cap, it can identify the market's historically undervalued zones.
🔹 Market Phase Engine
Instead of using fixed boundaries, it calculates the probability of the market being in different phases:
✅ Capitulation
✅ Accumulation
✅ Expansion
✅ Distribution
✅ Euphoria
✅ Bear Market
As a result, the market is not placed in just one phase; rather, the probability of each phase is calculated dynamically.
📈 Decision engines
The indicator uses four main engines:
📊 Technical Engine
A combination of RSI, Stochastic, CCI, Momentum, MACD and Volume, all normalized and converted into a single score.
⛓️ On-Chain Engine
Support for data such as:
• SOPR
• LTH SOPR
• RHODL
• Puell Multiple
• Reserve Risk
• Exchange Flow
• Whale Ratio
• Liveliness
• Coin Days Destroyed
🌍 Macro Engine
The ability to use macroeconomic data, including:
• DXY
• Global M2
• US 10-year bond yield
• Federal Reserve balance sheet
• Nasdaq
• S&P500
• Gold
• Oil
and other liquidity indicators.
🧠 Adaptive Composite Intelligence
Unlike ordinary indicators, not all models carry the same weight. The weight of each component changes intelligently and dynamically based on market conditions, data quality, the model's confidence level and the correlation between metrics, in order to prevent redundant information from having excessive influence.
🎯 Practical features
🟢 Colored dots displayed on the chart that show the overall market condition:
🟢 Strong bullish
🟢 Bullish
🟡 Neutral
🟠 Caution
🔴 Overbought or bearish risk
The bolder the color, the greater the agreement between the different models.
📌 Dedicated S2F buy and sell signals are generated based on the price's deviation from the Stock-to-Flow model; therefore, they appear when Bitcoin has entered very cheap or very expensive zones in terms of historical valuation.
📌 Detection of RSI and MVRV divergences and Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) formations to identify a possible trend reversal.
📌 Three multi-timeframe moving averages with different MA types and crossover alerts.
📌 A complete dashboard including:
• Composite Score
• Confidence
• Market Phase
• Status of the cycle models
• On-chain data
• Technical score
• Macroeconomic score
• Bitcoin's current valuation
✅ Who is this indicator for?
✔️ Long-term Bitcoin investors
✔️ Swing traders
✔️ Market cycle analysts
✔️ People looking to identify cyclical bottoms and tops.
❗️ This tool is not designed for scalping or predicting the next candle's move; rather, its goal is to help understand Bitcoin's current position in the big market cycle and to make more informed decisions based on a set of the most reliable analytical models.
#Bitcoin #TradingView #Crypto #CoinKurd
Most indicators rely on only one or two analytical tools such as RSI, a moving average or even the Stock-to-Flow model; but the reality is that the Bitcoin market is influenced by many factors, including investor behavior, on-chain data, macroeconomic cycles and technical structure. For this reason, relying on a single model usually does not give a complete picture of the market's condition.
💡 Kurdistani S2F BTC Cycle was designed with exactly this approach; a multi-layered analytical framework that brings together a set of the most reliable valuation and market cycle models in order to identify Bitcoin's true position in the long-term market cycle.
⚙️ The most important parts of the indicator
🔹 Stock-to-Flow (S2F)
An advanced version of the PlanB model that uses actual supply, annual flow calculation, logarithmic deviation analysis and Z-Score to measure how far the price is from the intrinsic S2F value.
🔹 Realized Price & On-Chain
Simultaneous calculation of Realized Price, MVRV, MVRV Z-Score and NUPL to examine where the market stands compared with investors' average purchase price.
🔹 Pi Cycle
Always calculated on the daily timeframe, independent of the chart's timeframe, so that the model behaves consistently and reliably on all charts.
🔹 Delta Price
Calculated based on the new definition of Delta Cap, it can identify the market's historically undervalued zones.
🔹 Market Phase Engine
Instead of using fixed boundaries, it calculates the probability of the market being in different phases:
✅ Capitulation
✅ Accumulation
✅ Expansion
✅ Distribution
✅ Euphoria
✅ Bear Market
As a result, the market is not placed in just one phase; rather, the probability of each phase is calculated dynamically.
📈 Decision engines
The indicator uses four main engines:
📊 Technical Engine
A combination of RSI, Stochastic, CCI, Momentum, MACD and Volume, all normalized and converted into a single score.
⛓️ On-Chain Engine
Support for data such as:
• SOPR
• LTH SOPR
• RHODL
• Puell Multiple
• Reserve Risk
• Exchange Flow
• Whale Ratio
• Liveliness
• Coin Days Destroyed
🌍 Macro Engine
The ability to use macroeconomic data, including:
• DXY
• Global M2
• US 10-year bond yield
• Federal Reserve balance sheet
• Nasdaq
• S&P500
• Gold
• Oil
and other liquidity indicators.
🧠 Adaptive Composite Intelligence
Unlike ordinary indicators, not all models carry the same weight. The weight of each component changes intelligently and dynamically based on market conditions, data quality, the model's confidence level and the correlation between metrics, in order to prevent redundant information from having excessive influence.
🎯 Practical features
🟢 Colored dots displayed on the chart that show the overall market condition:
🟢 Strong bullish
🟢 Bullish
🟡 Neutral
🟠 Caution
🔴 Overbought or bearish risk
The bolder the color, the greater the agreement between the different models.
📌 Dedicated S2F buy and sell signals are generated based on the price's deviation from the Stock-to-Flow model; therefore, they appear when Bitcoin has entered very cheap or very expensive zones in terms of historical valuation.
📌 Detection of RSI and MVRV divergences and Swing Failure Pattern (SFP) formations to identify a possible trend reversal.
📌 Three multi-timeframe moving averages with different MA types and crossover alerts.
📌 A complete dashboard including:
• Composite Score
• Confidence
• Market Phase
• Status of the cycle models
• On-chain data
• Technical score
• Macroeconomic score
• Bitcoin's current valuation
✅ Who is this indicator for?
✔️ Long-term Bitcoin investors
✔️ Swing traders
✔️ Market cycle analysts
✔️ People looking to identify cyclical bottoms and tops.
❗️ This tool is not designed for scalping or predicting the next candle's move; rather, its goal is to help understand Bitcoin's current position in the big market cycle and to make more informed decisions based on a set of the most reliable analytical models.
#Bitcoin #TradingView #Crypto #CoinKurd
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