Everyone is talking about the victory scenario. The headlines share a common message: “If the Clarity Act passes, the market will take a fresh breath.”
Everyone is talking about the victory scenario. The headlines share a common message: “If the Clarity Act passes, the market will take a fresh breath.”
But markets are not built on hope alone; they are built on probabilities.
A trader is not paid to predict the future, but to be prepared for different futures. That is why the most important question may not be “What happens if the law passes?” but rather “What if it never passes?”
To date, the path of this bill has been promising but unfinished. In the summer of 2025, it passed the House of Representatives. A few months later, the Senate Banking Committee also approved it. However, the final vote on the Senate floor has still not taken place, and the unofficial July 4 deadline also passed without result.
The Senate now resumes its work on July 13; but only a few weeks remain before the August recess. If this window closes, there is a high chance that the bill's fate will become tied to the tense atmosphere of the midterm elections, where major legislation usually stays stuck in the waiting line.
Prediction markets also reflect this same uncertainty. The probability of passage in 2026 is estimated at around 55 to 60 percent. In other words, the market is taking the possibility of failure almost as seriously as it is hoping for success. This is no longer a far-fetched risk; it is part of the reality of prices.
The reason for this uncertainty is not just a political disagreement. Three knots have yet to be untied.
First, the dispute over ethics rules. A group of Democratic senators want restrictions on the ownership of digital assets by government officials to be approved before the final vote; an issue that has met with opposition from the White House. Without the support of some Democrats, the voting equation cannot easily be completed.
The second knot relates to a part of the bill that protects developers of decentralized software. Law enforcement agencies believe this protection could make some criminal investigations more difficult. A disagreement for which no solution has yet been found.
And the third obstacle is money; the same force that often steers politics from behind the scenes. Banks warn that this law would allow cryptocurrency exchanges to offer rewards similar to bank interest, while the banks themselves face legal restrictions. When billions of dollars in revenue are at stake, it is natural that lobbies will not sit idly by.
Each of these three obstacles can buy time. Together, they can halt the entire process.
If this happens, the market's reaction will likely unfold in three acts.
The first act is emotion. Before the market moves on numbers, it moves on narratives. A narrative that has been built for months on the premise that “clarity is on the way” suddenly collapses. The first pressure will probably hit the shares of companies linked to the crypto industry; from exchanges and miners to companies that hold Bitcoin reserves on their balance sheets. Because a significant part of their valuation has rested on the assumption that America is entering a new era of regulation.
The second act is quieter, but deeper. Banks and financial institutions that have published ambitious price targets for Bitcoin usually have a hidden condition in their analysis: the formation of a clear legal framework. If this condition is removed, perhaps no one will withdraw their forecasts overnight, but the numbers will slowly come down, and the capital that was waiting for certainty will keep standing outside the door.
The third act is the longest part of the story. If this opportunity is lost, there may be no fundamental reform for years. The result would be a return to the same environment the market experienced for years; where, instead of clear law, the case-by-case decisions of regulators determined the industry's path. Fog once again takes the place of the map.
But not all assets react the same way.
Bitcoin will probably be the most resilient player on this stage. Its status as a commodity has largely been established. It may fall along with the initial wave, but history has repeatedly shown that it is the first asset to regain the market's confidence.
For Ethereum, the story is more complicated. Many of the hopes for the development of staking-based exchange-traded funds are tied to the clarification of its legal status. If the law stalls, this path will also slow down.
For XRP, the issue is even more sensitive. Part of its legal security still relies on executive decisions, not on enacted law. The rejection of this bill means its holders will still have to keep their eyes on shifts in regulators' views more than on the text of the law.
#legislation #clarity
But markets are not built on hope alone; they are built on probabilities.
A trader is not paid to predict the future, but to be prepared for different futures. That is why the most important question may not be “What happens if the law passes?” but rather “What if it never passes?”
To date, the path of this bill has been promising but unfinished. In the summer of 2025, it passed the House of Representatives. A few months later, the Senate Banking Committee also approved it. However, the final vote on the Senate floor has still not taken place, and the unofficial July 4 deadline also passed without result.
The Senate now resumes its work on July 13; but only a few weeks remain before the August recess. If this window closes, there is a high chance that the bill's fate will become tied to the tense atmosphere of the midterm elections, where major legislation usually stays stuck in the waiting line.
Prediction markets also reflect this same uncertainty. The probability of passage in 2026 is estimated at around 55 to 60 percent. In other words, the market is taking the possibility of failure almost as seriously as it is hoping for success. This is no longer a far-fetched risk; it is part of the reality of prices.
The reason for this uncertainty is not just a political disagreement. Three knots have yet to be untied.
First, the dispute over ethics rules. A group of Democratic senators want restrictions on the ownership of digital assets by government officials to be approved before the final vote; an issue that has met with opposition from the White House. Without the support of some Democrats, the voting equation cannot easily be completed.
The second knot relates to a part of the bill that protects developers of decentralized software. Law enforcement agencies believe this protection could make some criminal investigations more difficult. A disagreement for which no solution has yet been found.
And the third obstacle is money; the same force that often steers politics from behind the scenes. Banks warn that this law would allow cryptocurrency exchanges to offer rewards similar to bank interest, while the banks themselves face legal restrictions. When billions of dollars in revenue are at stake, it is natural that lobbies will not sit idly by.
Each of these three obstacles can buy time. Together, they can halt the entire process.
If this happens, the market's reaction will likely unfold in three acts.
The first act is emotion. Before the market moves on numbers, it moves on narratives. A narrative that has been built for months on the premise that “clarity is on the way” suddenly collapses. The first pressure will probably hit the shares of companies linked to the crypto industry; from exchanges and miners to companies that hold Bitcoin reserves on their balance sheets. Because a significant part of their valuation has rested on the assumption that America is entering a new era of regulation.
The second act is quieter, but deeper. Banks and financial institutions that have published ambitious price targets for Bitcoin usually have a hidden condition in their analysis: the formation of a clear legal framework. If this condition is removed, perhaps no one will withdraw their forecasts overnight, but the numbers will slowly come down, and the capital that was waiting for certainty will keep standing outside the door.
The third act is the longest part of the story. If this opportunity is lost, there may be no fundamental reform for years. The result would be a return to the same environment the market experienced for years; where, instead of clear law, the case-by-case decisions of regulators determined the industry's path. Fog once again takes the place of the map.
But not all assets react the same way.
Bitcoin will probably be the most resilient player on this stage. Its status as a commodity has largely been established. It may fall along with the initial wave, but history has repeatedly shown that it is the first asset to regain the market's confidence.
For Ethereum, the story is more complicated. Many of the hopes for the development of staking-based exchange-traded funds are tied to the clarification of its legal status. If the law stalls, this path will also slow down.
For XRP, the issue is even more sensitive. Part of its legal security still relies on executive decisions, not on enacted law. The rejection of this bill means its holders will still have to keep their eyes on shifts in regulators' views more than on the text of the law.
#legislation #clarity
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