According to available information, the probability that Mt. Gox will complete the repayments by the final deadline (October 31, 2026 / 9 Aban 1405) is ve…
According to available information, the probability that Mt. Gox will complete the repayments by the final deadline (October 31, 2026 / 9 Aban 1405) is very high**; but there is no 100% legal guarantee.
Why is the probability of repayment high? 📌
* ✅ A significant portion of creditors have received their assets since 2024.
* ✅ The bankruptcy trustee (Trustee) holds the necessary Bitcoin, and there is no shortage of assets.
* ✅ The extension of the deadline to October 2026 was mainly due to administrative issues, identity verification and completing the payment process for some creditors, not a lack of capital.
* ✅ So far, no sign of cancellation or permanent suspension of the repayments has been published.
How much Bitcoin remains? 🟠
The latest on-chain data shows that there are still about:
**34,500 Bitcoin (BTC)
held in wallets linked to Mt. Gox. In addition, some Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and cash are also available for payment.
Will all of these 34,500 Bitcoin be sold? 🤔
Probably not.
Reasons:
* Many creditors have stated from the start that they intend to hold their Bitcoin.
* Part of the Bitcoin has already been distributed.
* Distribution is usually carried out in stages, not all at once.
* Some creditors are investment institutions that may hold the assets instead of selling immediately.
Summary 📊
* 🔹 Probability of completing the repayment by 9 Aban 1405: about 85 to 95 percent (an analytical estimate, not an official guarantee).
* 🔹 Bitcoin remaining with Mt. Gox: about 34,500 BTC.
* 🔹 Not all of this amount is expected to enter the market and be sold immediately; therefore, the actual effect on the Bitcoin price is probably smaller than what the figure of 34,500 BTC suggests.
#repayment #Bitcoin #market_analysis #risk_management
Why is the probability of repayment high? 📌
* ✅ A significant portion of creditors have received their assets since 2024.
* ✅ The bankruptcy trustee (Trustee) holds the necessary Bitcoin, and there is no shortage of assets.
* ✅ The extension of the deadline to October 2026 was mainly due to administrative issues, identity verification and completing the payment process for some creditors, not a lack of capital.
* ✅ So far, no sign of cancellation or permanent suspension of the repayments has been published.
How much Bitcoin remains? 🟠
The latest on-chain data shows that there are still about:
**34,500 Bitcoin (BTC)
held in wallets linked to Mt. Gox. In addition, some Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and cash are also available for payment.
Will all of these 34,500 Bitcoin be sold? 🤔
Probably not.
Reasons:
* Many creditors have stated from the start that they intend to hold their Bitcoin.
* Part of the Bitcoin has already been distributed.
* Distribution is usually carried out in stages, not all at once.
* Some creditors are investment institutions that may hold the assets instead of selling immediately.
Summary 📊
* 🔹 Probability of completing the repayment by 9 Aban 1405: about 85 to 95 percent (an analytical estimate, not an official guarantee).
* 🔹 Bitcoin remaining with Mt. Gox: about 34,500 BTC.
* 🔹 Not all of this amount is expected to enter the market and be sold immediately; therefore, the actual effect on the Bitcoin price is probably smaller than what the figure of 34,500 BTC suggests.
#repayment #Bitcoin #market_analysis #risk_management
Persian original · View this post on Telegram ↗ · Open in the archive · 💬 Discuss in the Coin_Kurd Telegram group · Educational, not financial advice.