A review of Bitcoin's historical cycle and the US midterm election pattern 📉🗳
A review of Bitcoin's historical cycle and the US midterm election pattern 📉🗳
Background
* The midterm pattern hypothesis (Midterm Election Cycle): based on historical data, final price bottoms in Bitcoin bear markets usually form in the months leading up to the US congressional midterm elections (U.S. Midterms).
* Final cleanout (Capitulation): this pattern shows that before the start of every major new rally, the market carries out a final washout (Shakeout) to drive out weak hands.
* Correcting a mistake in the text: the 2024 election was a “presidential” election (not a midterm). The next US midterm election will be held in November 2026.
Main focus
* Coincidence of political cycles and the halving: US midterm elections usually take place 2 years after the presidential election and roughly 2 years after each Bitcoin halving; a time when the bear market usually experiences its deepest bottoms ⏳
* Reduced uncertainty after the election: before the election, political and economic uncertainty drives capital out of risky markets. As election results become clear and tax/regulatory policies become transparent, liquidity flows back into the market 🏛
* The historical 4-year cycle pattern:
* 2014 (midterm): the bear cycle bottom recorded before the election, and the start of the accumulation phase.
* 2018 (midterm): the final crash to the $3,100 area right in the months of November/December 2018.
* 2022 (midterm): the price bottom recorded in the $15,600 area, coinciding with the events of November 2022.
Implications
* If the historical pattern repeats in the current cycle as well, the months leading up to the 2026 midterm elections could provide a golden accumulation opportunity (Accumulation Zone) for long-term investors.
* Traders should be alert to volatility and sudden drops (Shakeout) before the market rejoins the main bullish rally.
Conclusion
The link between US election cycles and Bitcoin price bottoms is rooted in the liquidity calendar and the easing of political uncertainties. Passing through the current compression phase could be a prelude to the formation of the cycle's key bottom 🎯
#Bitcoin #BTC #US_elections #cycle_analysis #4_year_cycle #halving #crypto
Background
* The midterm pattern hypothesis (Midterm Election Cycle): based on historical data, final price bottoms in Bitcoin bear markets usually form in the months leading up to the US congressional midterm elections (U.S. Midterms).
* Final cleanout (Capitulation): this pattern shows that before the start of every major new rally, the market carries out a final washout (Shakeout) to drive out weak hands.
* Correcting a mistake in the text: the 2024 election was a “presidential” election (not a midterm). The next US midterm election will be held in November 2026.
Main focus
* Coincidence of political cycles and the halving: US midterm elections usually take place 2 years after the presidential election and roughly 2 years after each Bitcoin halving; a time when the bear market usually experiences its deepest bottoms ⏳
* Reduced uncertainty after the election: before the election, political and economic uncertainty drives capital out of risky markets. As election results become clear and tax/regulatory policies become transparent, liquidity flows back into the market 🏛
* The historical 4-year cycle pattern:
* 2014 (midterm): the bear cycle bottom recorded before the election, and the start of the accumulation phase.
* 2018 (midterm): the final crash to the $3,100 area right in the months of November/December 2018.
* 2022 (midterm): the price bottom recorded in the $15,600 area, coinciding with the events of November 2022.
Implications
* If the historical pattern repeats in the current cycle as well, the months leading up to the 2026 midterm elections could provide a golden accumulation opportunity (Accumulation Zone) for long-term investors.
* Traders should be alert to volatility and sudden drops (Shakeout) before the market rejoins the main bullish rally.
Conclusion
The link between US election cycles and Bitcoin price bottoms is rooted in the liquidity calendar and the easing of political uncertainties. Passing through the current compression phase could be a prelude to the formation of the cycle's key bottom 🎯
#Bitcoin #BTC #US_elections #cycle_analysis #4_year_cycle #halving #crypto
Persian original · View this post on Telegram ↗ · Open in the archive · 💬 Discuss in the Coin_Kurd Telegram group · Educational, not financial advice.