🔶 Kurdistani Style Cycle | Bitcoin Cycle Indicator

🔶 Kurdistani Style Cycle | Bitcoin Cycle Indicator

This indicator combines three on-chain metrics (MVRV, NUPL, and SOPR proxy) and Z-Score normalization, dividing the market into 5 phases.

📊 Construction:
• MVRV = Market Cap ÷ Realized Cap
• NUPL = 1 - (1/MVRV)
• SOPR Proxy = Price position in short-term vs. long-term range
⬇️ All normalized via Z-Score (365-day mean and standard deviation)
⚖️ Weighted combination (Default: MVRV 40%, NUPL 40%, SOPR 20%)
📈 Bull-Bear Index = Composite Index - 365-day Moving Average

🌈 5 Market Phases:
🔵 Severe Bear (Bull-Bear ≤ -1.5) ← Deep bottom, long-term buying opportunity
🔷 Bear (Between -1.5 and 0) ← Downtrend/Consolidation
🟢 Early Bull (0 to 0.5) ← Recovery start
🟠 Bull (0.5 to 1.5) ← Healthy uptrend
🔴 Overbought (≥ 1.5) ← Potential top, time to take profit

📉 Graphical Display:
• Gray Bull-Bear line + colored phase columns
• Red dotted lines (1.5+) and blue dotted lines (1.5-)
• BTC price Z-Score overlap (light line)
• Real-time info table (MVRV, NUPL, SOPR, Price...)
⚠️ Asterisk (*) next to on-chain data in lower timeframes means it has not been updated.

⚙️ Key Settings:
• Cycle moving average length (365)
• Z-Score period (365)
• Phase thresholds (1.5, 0.5, and -1.5)
• Weight of each component
• Minimum valid weight for calculation (0.5)
• Enable/disable normalized price line

🧠 Strategy:
🔵 DCA buying in severe bear
🟢 Confirmed entry in early bull
🟠 Hold position in bull
🔴 Gradual exit or take profit in overbought
Double confirmation: Price Z-Score alignment with the phase

⚠️ Limitation: SOPR proxy replaces actual data. Daily timeframe is recommended. Buy/sell signal is not definitive.

#Bitcoin #OnChain #MarketCycle #TradingView