Bitcoin Negative Premium; A Record Where Half of It Is Misleading 📊
Bitcoin Negative Premium; A Record Where Half of It Is Misleading 📊
Background
Bitcoin's premium on Coinbase has been negative for 103 consecutive days since May 6, marking the longest recorded streak
However, the difference between Coinbase's dollar price and Binance's Tether-backed price is also affected by fluctuations in Tether's parity
Focus
📉 After adjusting for the Tether effect, out of the first 97 days, only 48 days actually had a negative premium
⚖️ The median of the adjusted difference was nearly zero, and the longest negative period was just 8 days
🏦 Nevertheless, an 8.5% decline in the assets of Bitcoin funds confirms part of the genuine demand weakness
Implications
📊 The 103-day record alone should not be taken as a definitive sign of weak US demand
⚠️ Analyzing the premium without adjusting for the Tether effect can overestimate the market's actual selling pressure
Conclusion
🔎 The data confirms the presence of some demand weakness, but a large portion of the negative premium record stems from the Tether effect rather than actual selling
#Bitcoin #Premium #Tether #CryptocurrencyMarket
Background
Bitcoin's premium on Coinbase has been negative for 103 consecutive days since May 6, marking the longest recorded streak
However, the difference between Coinbase's dollar price and Binance's Tether-backed price is also affected by fluctuations in Tether's parity
Focus
📉 After adjusting for the Tether effect, out of the first 97 days, only 48 days actually had a negative premium
⚖️ The median of the adjusted difference was nearly zero, and the longest negative period was just 8 days
🏦 Nevertheless, an 8.5% decline in the assets of Bitcoin funds confirms part of the genuine demand weakness
Implications
📊 The 103-day record alone should not be taken as a definitive sign of weak US demand
⚠️ Analyzing the premium without adjusting for the Tether effect can overestimate the market's actual selling pressure
Conclusion
🔎 The data confirms the presence of some demand weakness, but a large portion of the negative premium record stems from the Tether effect rather than actual selling
#Bitcoin #Premium #Tether #CryptocurrencyMarket
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